Three Election Outcomes and the Future of the Chittagong Hill Tracts

 

Bangladesh is heading toward a national election. Many people are talking about who will come to power. But for the indigenous people of the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT), elections are not just about leaders. In the hills, elections change daily life, security, and land issues.

 

For many decades, the Chittagong Hill Tracts has lived under a difficult situation. The CHT Peace Accord has not been fully implemented. Military presence remains strong. Indigenous people continue to face land disputes, fear, and political division. Because of this history, election results affect the hills more deeply than most other parts of Bangladesh.

 

In the plains, elections mostly change politicians. In the hills, elections often change how power is used.

 

At present, analysts and observers are discussing three main election outcomes. Each could create a different future for the Chittagong Hill Tracts.

 

If the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) forms the next government, Bangladesh may return to a familiar political path. Relations with India may improve. Ties with the United States and Europe may also become normal again. The new government would likely focus on controlling law and order and repairing the economy.

 

But in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, many people are worried about this outcome. In the past, BNP governments managed the hills through security forces. Political dialogue was limited. Land disputes and Indigenous rights were not treated as priorities.

 

Many people fear that violence could return. Even if the Peace Accord is not officially cancelled, it may remain inactive and meaningless. BNP has opposed the Accord from the beginning. Tension between Bengali settlers and Indigenous communities could increase. Internal conflicts among hill-based political groups, including PCJSS, could continue for a long time. Instead of addressing root problems, the government may again rely on force.

 

This situation may create surface-level calm. But for the hills, it would not bring real peace.

 

If Jamaat-e-Islami and its allies gain strong influence in government, the political environment could change more sharply. Bangladesh may not become a religious state, but politics could move in a more religion-based direction.

 

After independence, the Jamaat has never ruled the country alone. It ruled together with the BNP in the past. During those periods, the situation in the Chittagong Hill Tracts was widely seen as bad. Because of this history, Jamaat’s rise is a serious concern for the hills.

 

The Peace Accord could be cancelled. Indigenous identity, culture, and religious freedom could come under pressure. Minority communities may feel more unsafe. Space for free speech and local political activity could shrink.

 

Relations with India could also worsen. Security concerns in India’s northeast may increase. The hills are already under heavy security control. In this situation, daily life could become even harder. Some people describe this scenario as a “plus point,” but what that would actually mean for Indigenous people remains unclear.

 

If no party wins enough seats to form a clear government, Bangladesh could face political instability. Protests may happen. Politics could slow down. Many people see this as a dangerous outcome for the country.

 

But for the Chittagong Hill Tracts, this situation may be less harmful than the other two. When power is divided, no single party can easily impose strict policies on the hills. Heavy security control becomes harder to justify.

 

When leaders in Dhaka are busy forming coalitions and managing political survival, pressure on the hills often decreases. This can give local administration and ordinary people some breathing space. While uncertainty would remain, large-scale violence might be avoided.

 

This outcome would not solve long-standing problems. But it could prevent a sharp escalation.

 

The future of the Chittagong Hill Tracts does not depend only on who wins the election. What matters more is how power is used after the vote. The hills have suffered most when decisions were made without listening to Indigenous voices.

 

Stability without justice does not last. Control without dialogue does not bring peace. The people of the hills need restraint, understanding, and political maturity. Yet no government in Bangladesh has shown this consistently.

 

Because of this, some intellectuals believe that “something” may happen in the Chittagong Hill Tracts if Jamaat comes to power. But what that “something” will be remains unclear.

 

Many policy thinkers in the Chittagong Hill Tracts believe the worst situation for Indigenous people will come if the BNP returns to power. For this reason, some argue that BNP should be boycotted in the hills during this election.

 

For Bangladesh, this election will decide the next government. For the Chittagong Hill Tracts, this election will decide whether life becomes harder or whether there is at least some space to breathe.