From Shadow War to Open Conflict: Iran, Israel, and the U.S.

 

How decades of rivalry between Iran, Israel, and the United States led to the war now shaking the Middle East.

 

For decades, Iran and Israel confronted each other in what analysts often described as a “shadow war.” Cyber attacks, intelligence operations, targeted killings, and proxy conflicts across the Middle East defined their rivalry. The United States, closely aligned with Israel, also became part of this long confrontation.

 

On February 28, 2026, that shadow conflict entered a far more dangerous phase. At around 9:45 a.m. local time in Tehran, Israel and the United States launched coordinated air and missile strikes on Iran, targeting military bases, strategic facilities, and leadership compounds across the country. The attack marked one of the most dramatic escalations in the decades-long rivalry between the three powers.

 

For many readers around the world, the confrontation between Iran, Israel, and the United States may appear sudden and dramatic. Missile strikes, threats of retaliation, and rising military deployments can create the impression that the conflict began recently. In reality, the hostility between these countries has been developing for decades.

 

Understanding the current war requires looking back at history. The relationship between Iran, Israel, and the United States has passed through several phases, from quiet cooperation to deep hostility. Over time, these tensions evolved into one of the most complicated geopolitical rivalries in the Middle East.

 

The story begins in 1979.

 

Before 1979, Iran and the United States were close allies. Iran was ruled by Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, a monarch who maintained strong political and military ties with Washington. During this period, Iran also maintained quiet but friendly relations with Israel.

 

Everything changed with the Iranian Revolution of 1979.

 

The revolution overthrew the Shah and brought Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to power. Iran became an Islamic Republic guided by religious leadership. The new government adopted a strongly anti-Western position and declared Israel an illegitimate state.

 

From that moment, relations between Iran and Israel turned hostile.

 

During the 1980s and 1990s, Iran expanded its influence across the Middle East by supporting several armed groups that opposed Israel.

 

One of the most important of these groups was Hezbollah in Lebanon. With financial support, weapons, and training from Iran, Hezbollah developed into a powerful military and political force.

 

Iran also built relations with Palestinian groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Through these alliances, Iran challenged Israel without engaging in direct warfare.

 

This strategy is often called a proxy conflict, a confrontation fought indirectly through allied groups rather than through direct military battles.

 

Another major source of tension emerged in the early 2000s: Iran’s nuclear program.

 

International inspectors discovered previously undisclosed nuclear facilities in Iran. Western governments feared that Iran might eventually develop nuclear weapons. Iran insisted that its nuclear program was designed only for peaceful purposes, including energy production and scientific research.

 

Israel strongly opposed the program, arguing that a nuclear-armed Iran would pose a direct threat to its security.

 

Diplomatic negotiations eventually produced the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The agreement limited Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for relief from international sanctions.

 

However, tensions returned when the United States withdrew from the agreement in 2018 and re-imposed economic sanctions on Iran.

 

Following the collapse of the nuclear deal, the rivalry between Iran and Israel increasingly moved into the realm of covert operations.

 

This period became widely known as the shadow war.

 

The conflict included cyber attacks, sabotage of military facilities, and targeted assassinations. Several Iranian nuclear scientists were killed in operations widely attributed to Israeli intelligence services.

 

Cyber warfare also became a major tool. One of the most famous incidents involved the Stuxnet computer virus, which damaged centrifuges used in Iran’s nuclear program. Security analysts believe the operation was developed jointly by the United States and Israel.

 

Meanwhile, Israel carried out repeated air strikes on Iranian-linked military positions in Syria, aiming to prevent Iran from establishing permanent bases near Israeli territory.

 

Despite these confrontations, both sides largely avoided direct full-scale war.

 

The rivalry intensified further in January 2020, when a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad killed General Qassem Soleimani, one of Iran’s most powerful military leaders.

 

Soleimani commanded the Quds Force, a branch of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard responsible for overseas operations. His death marked one of the most significant escalations in the confrontation between the United States and Iran.

 

Iran responded by launching missiles at U.S. military bases in Iraq.

 

Although a broader war did not follow immediately, the incident demonstrated how quickly tensions could spiral into open conflict.

 

Over the following years, the shadow war continued through cyber operations, regional proxy battles, and occasional direct strikes.

 

On February 28, 2026, the long-running confrontation between Iran, Israel, and the United States reached a dramatic turning point.

 

At approximately 9:45 a.m. local time in Tehran, Israel and the United States launched coordinated air and missile strikes on Iran. The attacks targeted military bases, strategic facilities, and leadership compounds in Tehran and other cities.

 

One of the most significant targets was a compound associated with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iranian state media later confirmed that Khamenei was killed during the strikes, along with several senior military and security officials.

 

Soon after the attacks, Iran launched missiles and drones toward Israel and U.S. military bases in the region, raising fears that the conflict could expand into a wider Middle Eastern war.

 

Because the conflict is still ongoing, casualty figures continue to change as new information emerges.

 

As of early March 2026, reports indicate that hundreds of people have already been killed in the first days of fighting.

 

In Iran, air strikes across multiple cities and military sites reportedly caused around 787 deaths. Iranian missile attacks on Israel also resulted in casualties, with at least nine people reported killed.

 

In addition, six American soldiers were reported killed during retaliatory attacks on U.S. military bases in the region.

 

Taken together, early estimates suggest that the death toll from the conflict has already exceeded 800 people, although the numbers may rise as the war continues.

 

What is clear is that the conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States did not emerge overnight.

 

It is the product of decades of political rivalry, ideological hostility, and strategic competition.

 

The February 2026 strikes marked a dramatic escalation in this long confrontation, transforming a shadow war into a far more dangerous open conflict.

 

Whether the crisis will expand into a wider regional war or eventually return to diplomacy remains uncertain. But the events of 2026 have already reshaped the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.

 

Understanding the long history behind this conflict is essential for anyone trying to grasp the forces now shaping the region and the wider world.